After Adrian Beltre, who's next to 3,000 hits?


For the third consecutive season, baseball fans have witnessed a major leaguer reaching the 3,000 hit milestone.

New York Yankees third baseman Alex Rodriguez pulled off the feat in 2015. Miami Marlins outfielder Ichiro Suzuki did it last August. And now Texas Rangers third baseman Adrian Beltre notched No. 3,000 nearly a year to the day later. 

In doing so, Beltre became the 31st member of a growing club. 

So, who’s next in line?

Albert Pujols of the Los Angeles Angels should become the 32nd member in early 2018. His is just 91 hits away from 3,000. But after Pujols, it could be a few seasons before we see another welcomed to the club. 

There are still a number of veteran players within striking distance, barring any serious injury. By using a formula created by Bill James called “The Favorite Toy,” we can see the likelihood and chances of a player who can reach a certain benchmark. This particular formula uses a player’s age and recent performance history to predict the chances.

Here’s a look at some potential new members of the 3,000 hit club (hits total through July 29): 

Albert Pujols, Los Angeles Angels

  • Age: 37
  • Hits: 2,911
  • Rank among current players: 3rd
  • Chance of getting to 3,000 hits: 100%

Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers

  • Age: 34
  • Hits: 2,603
  • Rank among current players: 5th
  • Chance of getting to 3,000 hits: 100%

Robinson Cano, Seattle Mariners

  • Age: 34
  • Hits: 2,309
  • Rank among current players: 6th
  • Chance of getting to 3,000 hits: 48.1%

Dustin Pedroia, Boston Red Sox

  • Age: 33
  • Hits: 1,786
  • Rank among current players: 15th
  • Chance of getting to 3,000 hits: 6.4%

Jose Altuve, Houston Astros

  • Age: 27
  • Hits: 1,190
  • Rank among current players: 65th
  • Chance of getting to 3,000 hits: 41.4%

Carlos Beltran, with 2,695 hits, and Matt Holliday, with 2,065, rank fourth and seventh on the active hit list, but Beltran is 40 and Holliday 37.

Gallery: Recent members of the 3,000 hit club

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